Black Friday Brings More Than Just Revenue…
Even though Black Friday and Cyber Monday bring in the most transactions of the year, they also signal the beginning of a tsunami of delayed chargebacks for PSPs, merchant aggregators, and PayFacs.
The reason is that chargeback exposure increases in conjunction with transaction volume. The likelihood of first-party fraud, buyers remorse, or post-purchase abuse increases with the number of transactions you complete. Friendly fraud increases with your increasing transaction volume, whether it’s a customer disputing a valid sale, canceling a charge after gifting the item, or making a fraudulent claim that a product didn’t arrive.
However, it rarely occurs right away. The majority of Black Friday-related chargebacks won’t show up until December or January, when customers start going over their statements or decide they’ve changed their minds. This poses a hidden risk to high-growth businesses and the platforms that support them. Scheme thresholds, merchant onboarding, and portfolio health may be impacted by those postponed disputes if proactive prevention is not implemented.
What’s Really Driving the Disputes?
Many merchants believe fraud is to blame when chargebacks start to increase in December and January. However, the majority of disputes during the post-Black Friday spike are not related to stolen cards, but rather sometimes avoidable problems with the customer experience, billing transparency, fulfillment execution and expectations.
Shipping delays, which are frequently brought on by fulfillment bottlenecks or overworked couriers, are among the most frequent causes. If there is no proactive communication or delivery tracking, a product that arrives late, even by a few days, may be subject to a “product not received” claim.
Unrecognized charges are another factor, usually as a result of ambiguous or inconsistent billing descriptors that perplex customers looking over their statements following the holiday season. For high-volume merchants who use parent company names or other variant identities, it is important this is highlighted for them.
Seasonal surges can make subscription and recurring charging models a minefield. Even if the buyer opted in, “I didn’t sign up for this” allegations may result from free trials or promotional offers with ambiguous restrictions.
Last but not least, a lot of chargebacks over the holiday season are still silently caused by first-party fraud, where buyers file disputes out of impatience or buyer’s regret. These claims are more difficult to dispute and can often avoid refund procedures completely.
As Q1 gets underway, these disputes have the potential to subtly reduce income and drive portfolios over card scheme thresholds. What’s required is to offset this is early detection and real-time response measures.
Tools That Will Actually Work for Black Friday Chargebacks
It takes more than just manual case-by-case answers to reduce chargebacks during the Black Friday surge. The best payment stacks include technologies that proactively avoid confusion, fraud, and friction along with automated dispute deflection.
The first line of defense is still Chargeback Alerts from companies like Verifi and Ethoca. Merchants are notified by these notifications as soon as a dispute is raised, providing them with a brief window of opportunity to provide a refund before it turns into a chargeback. This can be a game changer for helpping high-volume merchants avoid penalties and maintain dispute ratios.
This can be enhanced with Verifi’s Rapid Dispute Resolution (RDR). Without wasting time or operational resources disputing low-value claims, merchants can maintain clean ratios by automatically refunding particular dispute types.
For high-risk or foreign transactions, 3D Secure 2.2 adds a liability shift from the fraud perspective, from merchant to issuer. It guarantees that the merchant won’t be forced to pay for unauthorized purchases, particularly when fraud attempts are at their highest.
These are complemented with checkout and billing optimizations. “I didn’t recognize this” arguments are decreased by using clear, brand-aligned billing descriptors, particularly when buying gifts. Accurate expectations are aided by transparent checkout processes that prominently indicate membership terms, refund policies, and delivery schedules. Additionally, customers can cancel or receive a refund using modern instant-refund services without having to wait or contact support, which lessens the need to make a chargeback out of annoyance.
The formula that wins? Automate whenever you can. Be clear in your communication. Take action before the disputes arise.
How PayShield Keeps You Ahead of the Storm
Your entire dispute infrastructure is put to the test during seasonal spikes like Black Friday, not just your checkout. PayShield can help with that.
Our technology is designed specifically for times of high traffic, providing enterprise merchants, PayFacs, and PSPs with the means to handle and divert chargebacks on a large scale. With completely automated workflows, we assist you in handling hundreds of Alerts and RDR cases every day, preventing manual overburden. You can prioritize low-risk situations without compromising ratio integrity by applying refund logic by order type, vertical, issuer BIN, or dispute reason.
Preventing fraud is also covered. By enabling real-time authentication using our 3D Secure 2.2 integrations and Transaction Risk API, you can stop suspicious transactions before they are even processed and turned into expensive disputes.
Above all, PayShield provides visibility to platform providers. Even during January’s post-sale spikes, we let you to keep an eye on dispute ratios, spot problematic merchants early, and avoid going above scheme thresholds.
PayShield gives you the dispute management stack you need to survive the storm and emerge stronger, whether you’re scaling your own brand or powering thousands of merchants.
Summary
The final quarter of 2025 has the potential to increase sales and transaction volume significantly, but the additional volume could lead to an increase in chargebacks in December and January for the unprepared.
Customers start looking over their statements at that point, refund deadlines pass, and buyer remorse sets in, all of which contribute to an increase in potentially avoidable disputes. Additionally, if you’re unprepared, your dispute ratio may increase and endanger your MID/s.
Are you a high-volume merchant or are you a PayFac, PSP or aggregator that supports one throughout Black Friday?
The time has come to safeguard your portfolios and margins.
With the help of PayShield, you can lower your risk of fraud, automate dispute settlement, and prevent surges in chargebacks before they affect your reputation with card schemes or your financial performance.
Get your dispute management stack prepared for the busy season and beyond by speaking with PayShield today.
